Since he announced his run for the White House in 2015, Donald Trump‘s method has been to maximise at all times the amount of attention directed at him. [...] When power is based on appearances it can slip away suddenly.- P7

Before covid-19 hit America, Mr Trump looked likelier thannot to be re-elected, thanksto a relentlessly growing economy. Incumbent presidents almost always win in such circumstances. Our election model made him a narrow favourite, even though he was a few points down in national polls with his rival, Joe Biden. However, the president is now in a deep hole. Mr Biden is up by nine points-more in some polls. He is doing well in battleground states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin, and he has strong support among older voters and is doing surprisingly now gives Mr Trump only a roughly 10% chance of winning. The virus has demonstrated something definitively to a large number of persuadable voters: that MrTrump is just not that good at being a president.
- P7

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