So much of the world hangs by a thread. - P13
An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began. - P13
Viewing events in isolation, without an appreciation of their long roots, helps explain everything from why forecasting is hard to why politics is nasty. - P13
Events compound in unfathomable ways. - P13
Predicting what the world will look like fifty years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I’d take. - P14
The absurdity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones. - P15
I try to keep two things in mind in a world that’s this vulnerable to chance and accident.
One is highlighting this book’s premise—to base predictions on how people behave rather than on specific events.
The other thing to keep in mind is to have a wider imagination. - P15
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