The inability to forecast the past has no impact on our desire to forecast the future. Certainty is so valuable that we’ll never give up the quest for it, and most people couldn’t get out of bed in the morning if they were honest about how uncertain the future is. - P54
If you want to really judge someone’s abilities you would compare dozens, hundreds, or thousands of attempts against reality. But a lot of fields don’t generate that many opportunities to measure. It’s no one’s fault; it’s just that the reality of the real world is messier than an idealized spreadsheet. - P53
It often takes too long for a sufficient sample size to play out. So everyone is left guessing. - P53
Distinguishing between unfortunate odds and recklessness is hard when risk has painful consequences. It’s easier to see black and white even when the odds are apparent. - P54
Knowing the high odds of something happening loses its meaning when that thing happening hurts. Probability goes out the window. - P56
But our difficulty dealing with probability and large numbers makes us overly sensitive to run-of-the-mill, inevitable risks. Same as ever. - P55
Stories are always more powerful than statistics. - P56
내가 기억하려 애쓰는 또 다른 하나는 열린 상상력을 지녀야 한다는 점이다. 즉 현재 상황을 뛰어넘어 늘 다양한 가능성을 고려해야 한다.
-알라딘 eBook <불변의 법칙> (모건 하우절 지음, 이수경 옮김) 중에서 - P16
A big part of this idea is coming to terms with how limited our view of what’s happening in the world can be. - P20
People who think about the world in unique ways you like also think about the world in unique ways you won’t like. - P36
The key thing is that unique minds have to be accepted as a full package, because the things they do well and that we admire cannot be separated from the things we wouldn’t want for ourselves or we look down upon. - P37
A common trait of human behavior is the burning desire for certainty despite living in an uncertain and probabilistic world. - P45
The core here is that people think they want an accurate view of the future, but what they really crave is certainty. - P46
Just whoever tells a story that catches people’s attention and gets them to nod their heads is the one who tends to be rewarded. - P56
I have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream. I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal." I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. I have a dream today! The rest was history. - P58
Mark Twain said, "Humor is a way to show you’re smart without bragging." - P63
When a topic is complex, stories are like leverage. - P63
The most persuasive stories are about what you want to believe is true, or are an extension of what you’ve experienced firsthand. - P64
Stories get diverse people to focus attention on a single point. - P64
Good stories create so much hidden opportunity among things you assume can’t be improved. - P65
Some of the most important questions to ask yourself are: Who has the right answer, but I ignore because they’re inarticulate? And what do I believe is true but is actually just good marketing? - P66
The world is driven by forces that cannot be measured. - P67
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